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The heads of the British and American foreign intelligence agencies said Saturday that Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia is a significant achievement that could change the narrative of the grinding 2 1/2-year war.
Richard Moore, the head of MI6, said Kyiv’s surprise move in August to seize territory in Russia’s Kursk region was “typically audacious and bold on the part of the Ukrainians, to try and change the game.” He said the offensive had “brought the war home to ordinary Russians.”
Speaking alongside Moore at a rare public event in London, CIA Director William Burns said the offensive was a “significant achievement” that had exposed vulnerabilities in the Russian military.
Burns also warned of the growing and “troubling” defense relationship between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea that he said threatens both Ukraine and Western allies in the Middle East. North Korea has sent ammunition and missiles to Russia to use against Ukraine, while Iran supplies Moscow with attack drones.
Burns said the CIA had yet to see evidence of China sending weapons to Russia, “but we see lot of things short of that.” And he warned Iran against supplying ballistic missiles to Moscow, saying “it would be a dramatic escalation” of the relationship.
The two spymasters also wrote an opinion piece for the Financial Times, calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and saying their agencies had “exploited our intelligence channels to push hard for restraint and de-escalation.”
They said a ceasefire in Israel’s war against Hamas “could end the suffering and appalling loss of life of Palestinian civilians and bring home the hostages after 11 months of hellish confinement.”
Burns has been heavily involved in efforts to broker an end to the fighting, traveling to Egypt in August for high-level talks aimed at bringing about a hostage deal and at least a temporary halt to the conflict.
So far there has been no agreement, though United States officials insist a deal is close. U.S. President Joe Biden said recently that “just a couple more issues” remain unresolved. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, has said reports of a breakthrough are “exactly inaccurate.”
“I cannot tell you how close we are right now,” Burns told an audience at the FT Weekend Festival at London’s Kenwood House.
He said that while 90 per cent of the text has been agreed between the warring sides, “the last 10 per cent is the last 10 per cent for a reason, because it’s the hardest part to do.”
Burns said ending the conflict would require “some hard choices and some political compromises” from both Israel and Hamas.
The U.S. and the United Kingdom are both staunch allies of Israel, though London diverged from Washington on Monday by suspending some arms exports to Israel because of the risk they could be used to break international law.
In their article, Burns and Moore stressed the strength of the trans-Atlantic relationship in the face of “an unprecedented array of threats,” including an assertive Russia, an ever-more powerful China and the constant threat from international terrorism — all complicated by rapid technological change.
They highlighted Russia’s “reckless campaign of sabotage” across Europe and the “cynical use of technology to spread lies and disinformation designed to drive wedges between us.”
U.S. officials have long accused Moscow of meddling in American elections, and this week the Biden administration seized Kremlin-run websites and charged employees of Russian broadcaster RT with covertly funding social media campaigns to pump out pro-Kremlin messages and sow discord around November’s presidential contest.
The article is the first joint opinion piece by the heads of the two spy agencies. The two directors pointed to a new era of openness in their secretive field, noting that the CIA and MI6 both declassified intelligence about Russia’s plan to invade Ukraine before Moscow attacked its neighbor in February 2022.
“We saw it coming, and were able to warn the international community so we could all rally to Ukraine’s defense,” they said.
The spy chiefs said “staying the course” in supporting Ukraine remained vital.
They said the conflict has brought an unprecedented mix of conventional weaponry, fast-evolving technology in the form of drones and satellites, cyber-warfare and information operations “at incredible pace and scale.”
“This conflict has demonstrated that technology, deployed alongside extraordinary bravery and traditional weaponry, can alter the course of war,” they said, praising “Ukraine’s resilience, innovation and elan.”
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